Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 85¢ · $735 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$734.52
$17.91
82.2¢ → 84.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
177h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU buoys | Noavg 82¢ | $537.06 | $553.43 | +$16.37 | — 0-11 (11) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 83¢ | $119.18 | $117.41 | -$1.77 | — 0-12 (12) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $18.98 | $23.72 | +$4.74 | 41% 3005-4412 (7417) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $24.23 | $21.63 | -$1.44 | — 8-9 (17) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 | 15% 10-56 (66) |
 4751346CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $2.91 | $2.91 | +$0 | 0% 0-63 (63) |
Invested
$537.06
Value
$553.43
PnL
+$16.37
Record
—
0-11 (11)
Invested
$119.18
Value
$117.41
PnL
-$1.77
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$18.98
Value
$23.72
PnL
+$4.74
Record
41%
3005-4412 (7417)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$24.23
Value
$21.63
PnL
-$1.44
Record
—
8-9 (17)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
$15
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
10-56 (66)
4751346CTR<$100Invested
$2.91
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$0
Record
0%
0-63 (63)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.