Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$293.18

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 45¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,619

Combined PnL+$410.93

Yes6 traders

Total Value$928.99

Total Shares1,775

Combined PnL-$117.74

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mombilCTR	Noavg 36.4¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$459.91	56% 1244-996 (2240)
DirkDiggler67	Yesavg 55.6¢	$410.43	$361.89	-$48.53	61% 532-346 (878)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 57.5¢	$627.12	$348.41	-$49.11	34% 19186-36821 (56007)
HO HotDogsCTR	Noavg 43¢	$129	$138	-$24	93% 499-38 (537)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 55¢	$110	$110	-$0	56% 16352-13106 (29458)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 62.1¢	$90.05	$80.21	-$9.84	40% 6517-9785 (16302)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$87.2	$55.2	-$32	68% 740-356 (1096)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$70.68	$26.17	-$11.97	23% 1782-6021 (7803)
0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$10.96	$18.03	+$7.07	59% 193-134 (327)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.49	$2.44	-$0.05	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
vinii<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$0.59	$2.3	+$1.71	73% 3098-1126 (4224)

mombilCTR

Invested

$1,150.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$459.91

Record

56%

1244-996 (2240)

DirkDiggler67

Yes

Invested

$410.43

Value

$361.89

PnL

-$48.53

Record

61%

532-346 (878)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$627.12

Value

$348.41

PnL

-$49.11

Record

34%

19186-36821 (56007)

HotDogsCTR

Invested

$129

Value

$138

PnL

-$24

Record

93%

499-38 (537)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

$110

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

16352-13106 (29458)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.05

Value

$80.21

PnL

-$9.84

Record

40%

6517-9785 (16302)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100

Invested

$87.2

Value

$55.2

PnL

-$32

Record

68%

740-356 (1096)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.68

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$11.97

Record

23%

1782-6021 (7803)

0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402CTR<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$18.03

PnL

+$7.07

Record

59%

193-134 (327)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

vinii<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$1.71

Record

73%

3098-1126 (4224)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.0%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$112.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

212.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.