Will Alaska be the closest Senate race in 2026?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 95¢ · $636 held · ended Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$636.21

Combined PnL

$40.13

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 94.7¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$217.06

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$2.45

Yes4 traders

Total Value$56.85

Total Shares1,006

Combined PnL+$37.68

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$1.3K	$362.24	+$6.89	45% 2995-3689 (6684)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.4¢	$205.65	$215.52	-$372.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.5¢	$180.18	$146.72	+$379.54
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92.8¢	$139.18	$141.15	+$1.97	53% 23766-20936 (44702)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 93.9¢	$111.56	$75.91	+$0.48	53% 4530-4033 (8563)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$36.04	$24.41	-$11.63	70% 1185-499 (1684)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$10.31	$14.93	+$3.23	47% 123-140 (263)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$149.61	$9.54	+$46.02	34% 19350-36905 (56255)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$7.43	$7.96	+$0.07	50% 1595-1579 (3174)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$1,327.73

Value

$362.24

PnL

+$6.89

Record

45%

2995-3689 (6684)

Both legs:

No$205.6590.4¢-$372.65

Yes$180.186.5¢+$379.54

cigarettes

Invested

$139.18

Value

$141.15

PnL

+$1.97

Record

53%

23766-20936 (44702)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$111.56

Value

$75.91

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

4530-4033 (8563)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.04

Value

$24.41

PnL

-$11.63

Record

70%

1185-499 (1684)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.31

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$3.23

Record

47%

123-140 (263)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.61

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$46.02

Record

34%

19350-36905 (56255)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.43

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1595-1579 (3174)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.