Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 1.1¢

+33% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares1,872,832

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.3K	$5.9K	+$2.6K	67% 820-395 (1215)
HE HerbertAppreciatorCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.7K	$5.8K	$-2.9K	25% 31-91 (122)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$706.29	$1.3K	+$643.37	53% 3234-2906 (6140)
PE petanimalCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$209.0K	$1.1K	+$301.17	39% 961-1501 (2462)
SM smoltraderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$162.8K	$895.55	+$1.4K	44% 1950-2484 (4434)
J- J-E-RCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$509.48	$620.57	+$111.09	42% 160-217 (377)
JA JamesAltucherCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$95.5K	$561	-$53.04	74% 99-35 (134)
UP uprightuserCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$100.0K	$550	+$856.3	70% 167-72 (239)
BE Better-ManCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$69.8K	$384.17	+$598.12	69% 353-160 (513)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$18.99	$55.2	+$36.21	30% 672-1565 (2237)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$25.78	$42.5	+$16.72	6% 14-234 (248)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$3.94	$12.5	+$8.56	39% 2916-4532 (7448)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.6	$2.25	+$0.65	42% 2420-3373 (5793)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,330.78

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

67%

820-395 (1215)

HerbertAppreciatorCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,652.65

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

25%

31-91 (122)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$706.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$643.37

Record

53%

3234-2906 (6140)

petanimalCTR

Yes

Invested

$208,999.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$301.17

Record

39%

961-1501 (2462)

smoltraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$162,827.14

Value

$895.55

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

44%

1950-2484 (4434)

J-

J-E-RCTR

Yes

Invested

$509.48

Value

$620.57

PnL

+$111.09

Record

42%

160-217 (377)

JamesAltucherCTR

Yes

Invested

$95,530.91

Value

$561

PnL

-$53.04

Record

74%

99-35 (134)

uprightuserCTR

Yes

Invested

$100,000

Value

$550

PnL

+$856.3

Record

70%

167-72 (239)

Better-ManCTR

Yes

Invested

$69,848.92

Value

$384.17

PnL

+$598.12

Record

69%

353-160 (513)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.99

Value

$55.2

PnL

+$36.21

Record

30%

672-1565 (2237)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.78

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$16.72

Record

14-234 (248)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.94

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$8.56

Record

39%

2916-4532 (7448)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.65

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4375.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

4476.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.