Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$784.75

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 1.5¢

+73% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares1,941,302

Combined PnL+$784.75

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.6K	$6.2K	+$2.3K	67% 819-395 (1214)
HE HerbertAppreciatorCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.7K	$5.5K	$-3.1K	25% 31-91 (122)
PE petanimalCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$931.69	$1.1K	+$217.81	39% 961-1501 (2462)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$706.29	$1.0K	+$317.59	53% 3233-2906 (6139)
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$7.92	$1.0K	+$1.0K	72% 119-46 (165)
SM smoltraderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$723.28	$895.55	+$172.27	44% 1950-2484 (4434)
J- J-E-RCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$871.5	$620.57	-$250.93	42% 159-217 (376)
JA JamesAltucherCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$665.04	$561	-$104.04	74% 99-35 (134)
UP uprightuserCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$443.7	$550	+$106.3	70% 167-72 (239)
BE Better-ManCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$275	$384.17	+$109.17	69% 353-160 (513)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$18.99	$52.8	+$33.81	30% 671-1565 (2236)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$25.78	$10.2	-$15.58	6% 14-234 (248)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.6	$2.25	+$0.65	42% 2375-3275 (5650)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,564.3

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

67%

819-395 (1214)

HerbertAppreciatorCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,652.65

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

25%

31-91 (122)

petanimalCTR

Yes

Invested

$931.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$217.81

Record

39%

961-1501 (2462)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$706.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$317.59

Record

53%

3233-2906 (6139)

0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR

Yes

Invested

$7.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

72%

119-46 (165)

smoltraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$723.28

Value

$895.55

PnL

+$172.27

Record

44%

1950-2484 (4434)

J-

J-E-RCTR

Yes

Invested

$871.5

Value

$620.57

PnL

-$250.93

Record

42%

159-217 (376)

JamesAltucherCTR

Yes

Invested

$665.04

Value

$561

PnL

-$104.04

Record

74%

99-35 (134)

uprightuserCTR

Yes

Invested

$443.7

Value

$550

PnL

+$106.3

Record

70%

167-72 (239)

Better-ManCTR

Yes

Invested

$275

Value

$384.17

PnL

+$109.17

Record

69%

353-160 (513)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.99

Value

$52.8

PnL

+$33.81

Record

30%

671-1565 (2236)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.78

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$15.58

Record

14-234 (248)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.65

Record

42%

2375-3275 (5650)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3828.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

3928.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.