Will Abdul El-Sayed be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $757 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$756.67
$9.5
85.7¢ → 85¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 85%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 85.3¢ | $304.77 | $254.1 | +$6.44 | — 8-9 (17) |
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 86¢ | $215 | $217.5 | +$2.5 | 4% 2-51 (53) |
 UbuntuTrading | Noavg 85¢ | $170 | $137.2 | +$0.39 | 47% 1610-1838 (3448) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 86.9¢ | $102.05 | $102.23 | +$0.17 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
AU auros2ARB<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $54.57 | $45.65 | +$8.42 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14¢ | $18.97 | $23.04 | +$7.12 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $21.32 | $22.62 | +$1.3 |
HaradwaithInvested
$304.77
Value
$254.1
PnL
+$6.44
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$215
Value
$217.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
4%
2-51 (53)
UbuntuTradingInvested
$170
Value
$137.2
PnL
+$0.39
Record
47%
1610-1838 (3448)
Invested
$102.05
Value
$102.23
PnL
+$0.17
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$54.57
Value
$45.65
PnL
+$8.42
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.