Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-42 House election by 20%-25%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 50¢ · $125 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$125.19
-$2.64
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 longliveapples | Yesavg 71.3¢ | $107.08 | $75.1 | -$31.99 | 0% 0-25 (25) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $10 | $20 | +$10 | 52% 5263-4776 (10039) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $4.46 | $18.6 | +$14.13 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 26.3¢ | $4.73 | $9 | +$4.27 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $2.5 | +$0.95 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
longliveapplesInvested
$107.08
Value
$75.1
PnL
-$31.99
Record
0%
0-25 (25)
Invested
$10
Value
$20
PnL
+$10
Record
52%
5263-4776 (10039)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$14.13
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$9
PnL
+$4.27
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.95
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.