Will 7 or more Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 94¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$84.34

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 93.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,327

Combined PnL-$29.65

Yes8 traders

Total Value$199.53

Total Shares3,304

Combined PnL-$54.69

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Noavg 93.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$12.3	68% 1404-648 (2052)
D8 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935	Noavg 94¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$20	— 11-1 (12)
xxNyx	Noavg 92.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$2.18	— 3-2 (5)
SN SnoorrasonCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$122.57	$105.11	-$17.46	0% 0-39 (39)
KU kukubaja<$100	Noavg 94¢	$94	$93	-$1	76% 19-6 (25)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$48.55	$40.06	-$8.49	40% 10-15 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$22	$19.21	-$2.79	13% 62-416 (478)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$12.79	$11.61	-$1.18	25% 91-280 (371)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.6¢	$34.93	$11.26	-$23.67	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$8.6	$7.2	-$1.4	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
Haradwaith	Noavg 93.5¢	$286.33	$5.8	+$1.47	30% 108-251 (359)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$3.78	$4.1	+$0.31	37% 165-281 (446)
Dr.mettCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$1	$0.97	-$0.03	— 11-2 (13)

Car

Invested

$1,872.3

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$12.3

Record

68%

1404-648 (2052)

D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935

Invested

$1,879.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$20

Record

—

11-1 (12)

xxNyx

Invested

$1,132.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.18

Record

—

3-2 (5)

SnoorrasonCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.57

Value

$105.11

PnL

-$17.46

Record

0-39 (39)

kukubaja<$100

Invested

$94

Value

$93

PnL

-$1

Record

76%

19-6 (25)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.55

Value

$40.06

PnL

-$8.49

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$19.21

PnL

-$2.79

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.79

Value

$11.61

PnL

-$1.18

Record

25%

91-280 (371)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.93

Value

$11.26

PnL

-$23.67

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.6

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Haradwaith

Invested

$286.33

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$1.47

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.78

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.31

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

Dr.mettCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

11-2 (13)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.