Will 4 Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 69¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$448.49

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 68.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,346

Combined PnL-$463.25

Yes5 traders

Total Value$136.89

Total Shares432

Combined PnL+$14.75

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Noavg 73.9¢	$6.8K	$5.0K	-$420.2	— 8-7 (15)
TruongMyLan	Noavg 73¢	$584	$544	-$40	— 1-0 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 71.7¢	$452.1	$115.53	-$6.65	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
Haradwaith	Noavg 69¢	$143.03	$64.94	+$3.6	30% 108-251 (359)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$53.29	$56.25	+$2.96	25% 91-280 (371)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$33.6	$38.4	+$4.8	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$17.25	$19.85	+$2.59	37% 165-281 (446)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$14	$16	+$2	40% 10-15 (25)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$6.4	+$2.4	13% 62-416 (478)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Invested

$6,778.15

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$420.2

Record

—

8-7 (15)

TruongMyLan

Invested

$584

Value

$544

PnL

-$40

Record

—

1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$452.1

Value

$115.53

PnL

-$6.65

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

Haradwaith

Invested

$143.03

Value

$64.94

PnL

+$3.6

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.29

Value

$56.25

PnL

+$2.96

Record

25%

91-280 (371)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.6

Value

$38.4

PnL

+$4.8

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.25

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$2.59

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

$16

PnL

+$2

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$2.4

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.