Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will 3 Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 47¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$114.74

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 46.5¢

-6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,462

Combined PnL-$178.57

No7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,663

Combined PnL+$63.83

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$206.41	1% 4-423 (427)
StupidMonkeyyy	Noavg 50.4¢	$545.08	$583.74	+$38.66	60% 12-8 (20)
EuanCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$510.86	$479.59	-$31.28	— 3-9 (12)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 52.1¢	$414.73	$426.26	+$11.53	25% 91-280 (371)
NE Newshound	Noavg 49¢	$210.69	$232.19	+$21.5	1% 2-162 (164)
GD GdubCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$250	$230	-$20	— 3-7 (10)
G.Hchen	Noavg 51¢	$153	$162	+$9	6% 7-101 (108)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 46.9¢	$211.38	$91.44	+$35.32	13% 62-416 (478)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 45.7¢	$201.77	$59.07	+$50.26	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$58.8	$55.2	-$3.6	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.6¢	$30	$29.3	-$0.7	37% 165-281 (446)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.5¢	$23.29	$22.36	-$0.94	40% 10-15 (25)
Dr.mettCTR<$100	Yesavg 51.8¢	$36.25	$15.47	-$1.22	— 11-2 (13)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 53¢	$477.66	$13.28	-$18.75	35% 19-36 (55)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 56¢	$11.2	$10.8	-$0.4	46% 142-167 (309)
Haradwaith	Noavg 51.2¢	$140.93	$5.76	+$2.29	30% 108-251 (359)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,777.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$206.41

Record

4-423 (427)

StupidMonkeyyy

Invested

$545.08

Value

$583.74

PnL

+$38.66

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

EuanCTR

Yes

Invested

$510.86

Value

$479.59

PnL

-$31.28

Record

—

3-9 (12)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$414.73

Value

$426.26

PnL

+$11.53

Record

25%

91-280 (371)

Newshound

Invested

$210.69

Value

$232.19

PnL

+$21.5

Record

2-162 (164)

GdubCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$230

PnL

-$20

Record

—

3-7 (10)

G.Hchen

Invested

$153

Value

$162

PnL

+$9

Record

7-101 (108)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$211.38

Value

$91.44

PnL

+$35.32

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$201.77

Value

$59.07

PnL

+$50.26

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.8

Value

$55.2

PnL

-$3.6

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$29.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.29

Value

$22.36

PnL

-$0.94

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

Dr.mettCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.25

Value

$15.47

PnL

-$1.22

Record

—

11-2 (13)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$477.66

Value

$13.28

PnL

-$18.75

Record

35%

19-36 (55)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

46%

142-167 (309)

Haradwaith

Invested

$140.93

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$2.29

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.