Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 76¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$404.38

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 75.9¢

+44% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,775

Combined PnL+$426.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$39.67

Total Shares163

Combined PnL-$21.95

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 54.7¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	+$202.1	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$912.18	$475.35	-$203.25	14% 461-2758 (3219)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.6¢	$445.76	$373.41	-$72.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.4¢	$164.5	$101.94	-$130.64
DO donthackme	Noavg 40¢	$297.47	$367.83	+$229.67	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$342.45	$328.12	+$3.17	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.2¢	$224.14	$255.63	+$19.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.9¢	$88.7	$72.49	-$16.21
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 74¢	$29.6	$27.02	-$2.58	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$17.87	$25.32	+$7.45	46% 726-841 (1567)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 81¢	$25.88	$21.58	-$4.3	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$17.55	$16.89	-$0.66	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 42¢	$8.4	$13.51	+$5.11	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.1¢	$18.73	$12.33	-$6.4	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$21.06	$6.32	-$2.35	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$6.68	$6.02	-$0.66	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$60.22	$2.01	-$23	40% 285-429 (714)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$2,123.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$202.1

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$912.18

Value

$475.35

PnL

-$203.25

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Both legs:

No$445.7680.6¢-$72.61

Yes$164.539.4¢-$130.64

donthackme

Invested

$297.47

Value

$367.83

PnL

+$229.67

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$342.45

Value

$328.12

PnL

+$3.17

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Both legs:

No$224.1459.2¢+$19.38

Yes$88.729.9¢-$16.21

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.6

Value

$27.02

PnL

-$2.58

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.87

Value

$25.32

PnL

+$7.45

Record

46%

726-841 (1567)

merod<$100

Invested

$25.88

Value

$21.58

PnL

-$4.3

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$17.55

Value

$16.89

PnL

-$0.66

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$13.51

PnL

+$5.11

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.73

Value

$12.33

PnL

-$6.4

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.06

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$2.35

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$6.68

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.22

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$23

Record

40%

285-429 (714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

75.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.