Will FK Neftchi Fargona win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$25.22

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 96.7¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,898

Combined PnL+$25.26

No2 traders

Total Value$1.49

Total Shares9

Combined PnL-$0.04

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 90.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$23.39	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 95¢	$243.5	$242.18	-$1.31	40% 137-209 (346)
RN1	Yesavg 97¢	$235.72	$238.15	+$2.43	55% 5362-4302 (9664)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$177.27	$117.48	-$59.79	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 96.7¢	$70.4	$70.46	+$0.06
└ No leg	Noavg 7.4¢	$106.87	$47.02	-$59.84
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$9.06	$10.45	+$1.39	63% 208-124 (332)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$6.92	$7.26	+$0.34	56% 461-367 (828)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$4.85	$3.88	-$0.97	48% 2066-2225 (4291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.15	$1.08	-$0.07	42% 990-1359 (2349)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.38	$0.41	+$0.03	53% 1340-1169 (2509)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,241.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$23.39

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$243.5

Value

$242.18

PnL

-$1.31

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$235.72

Value

$238.15

PnL

+$2.43

Record

55%

5362-4302 (9664)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$177.27

Value

$117.48

PnL

-$59.79

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

Both legs:

Invested

$9.06

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$1.39

Record

63%

208-124 (332)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.92

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.85

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.07

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.