Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Malmo FF vs. Ajax Amsterdam: O/U 0.5
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 0.4¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 100%
$2.6K
$-3.8K
44.4¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 45.1¢ | $5.8K | $1.8K | $-4.0K | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 40.5¢ | $505.04 | $712.08 | +$207.04 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 24.2¢ | $18.01 | $42.48 | +$24.47 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.9¢ | $17.99 | $22.39 | +$4.4 | 30% 380-877 (1257) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $8.29 | $21.52 | +$13.23 | 30% 379-881 (1260) |
DA dashattackerCTR<$100 | Underavg 57.9¢ | $11.26 | $13.54 | +$2.28 | 61% 225-143 (368) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $1.13 | $2.93 | +$1.8 | 31% 390-873 (1263) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $32.18 | $0.32 | -$31.86 | 31% 385-855 (1240) |
Invested
$5,776.13
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$505.04
Value
$712.08
PnL
+$207.04
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$18.01
Value
$42.48
PnL
+$24.47
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$17.99
Value
$22.39
PnL
+$4.4
Record
30%
380-877 (1257)
Invested
$8.29
Value
$21.52
PnL
+$13.23
Record
30%
379-881 (1260)
Invested
$11.26
Value
$13.54
PnL
+$2.28
Record
61%
225-143 (368)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$1.8
Record
31%
390-873 (1263)
Invested
$32.18
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$31.86
Record
31%
385-855 (1240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.