Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-11-10?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$6.5K
$40.26
96.1¢ → 96.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.8¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | -$24.87 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 94.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$71.18 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 97.1¢ | $649.52 | $650.87 | +$1.35 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $406.73 | $338.35 | -$68.38 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97.3¢ | $262.71 | $262.44 | -$0.27 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $144.02 | $75.91 | -$68.11 | |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $94.41 | $93.51 | -$0.9 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $49.98 | $49.59 | -$0.4 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $46.7 | $39.18 | -$7.52 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $4.55 | $5.96 | +$1.41 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
Invested
$2,821.07
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$24.87
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$2,429.54
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$71.18
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$649.52
Value
$650.87
PnL
+$1.35
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$406.73
Value
$338.35
PnL
-$68.38
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.41
Value
$93.51
PnL
-$0.9
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$49.59
PnL
-$0.4
Record
41%
3040-4429 (7469)
Invested
$46.7
Value
$39.18
PnL
-$7.52
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$5.96
PnL
+$1.41
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.