Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Czarni Sosnowiec vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$6.2K
$466.43
43.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $2.4K | $3.0K | +$632.25 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 52.3¢ | $2.4K | $2.1K | -$99.57 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
PE pelik | Overavg 99.9¢ | $790.13 | $790.52 | +$0.4 | 99% 1230-4 (1234) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $170.23 | $215.03 | +$44.8 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 41¢ | $77.34 | $100.1 | +$22.76 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $6.9 | $11.1 | +$4.2 | 78% 704-201 (905) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 20.6¢ | $138.73 | $0.34 | -$138.4 | 31% 386-869 (1255) |
Invested
$2,373.76
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$632.25
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$2,398.22
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$99.57
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$790.13
Value
$790.52
PnL
+$0.4
Record
99%
1230-4 (1234)
Invested
$170.23
Value
$215.03
PnL
+$44.8
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$77.34
Value
$100.1
PnL
+$22.76
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$4.2
Record
78%
704-201 (905)
Invested
$138.73
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$138.4
Record
31%
386-869 (1255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.