Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sport Lisboa e Benfica, while the market favors FK Austria Wien (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: FK Austria Wien (-5.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sport Lisboa e Benfica (29%) · Sport Lisboa e Benfica at 50¢ · $828 held · ended Nov 11
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Neutral
Sport Lisboa e Benfica
7
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 29%
$827.77
$559.04
95.2¢ → 50¢
-47% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors FK Austria Wien 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JabJabich | FK Austria Wienavg 10¢ | $100 | $500 | +$400 | 8% 3-35 (38) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | FK Austria Wienavg 7¢ | $28 | $200 | +$172 | 38% 72-117 (189) |
FL Flaznorp | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 99¢ | $117.45 | $59.32 | -$58.13 | 51% 2280-2184 (4464) |
LO lovefield<$100 | FK Austria Wienavg 15¢ | $11.8 | $39.32 | +$27.53 | 17% 7-34 (41) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | FK Austria Wienavg 14.1¢ | $6.35 | $22.5 | +$16.15 | — 5-3 (8) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 50¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 43% 2572-3394 (5966) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | FK Austria Wienavg 4¢ | $0.13 | $1.62 | +$1.49 | 12% 34-240 (274) |
Invested
$100
Value
$500
PnL
+$400
Record
8%
3-35 (38)
Invested
$28
Value
$200
PnL
+$172
Record
38%
72-117 (189)
Invested
$117.45
Value
$59.32
PnL
-$58.13
Record
51%
2280-2184 (4464)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$39.32
PnL
+$27.53
Record
17%
7-34 (41)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$16.15
Record
—
5-3 (8)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
2572-3394 (5966)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$1.49
Record
12%
34-240 (274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
JabJabich
FK Austria Wien — $500
0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382
FK Austria Wien — $200
Flaznorp
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — $59.32
lovefield
FK Austria Wien — $39.32
BlackMamba08
FK Austria Wien — $22.5
e46m3
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — $5
LornaPredicts
FK Austria Wien — $1.62