Spread: FK Austria Wien (-2.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sport Lisboa e Benfica (57%) · Sport Lisboa e Benfica at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

FK Austria Wien2¢Sport Lisboa e Benfica98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Consensus Traders

Sport Lisboa e Benfica 57%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$517.24

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 98¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FK Austria Wien2%

Sport Lisboa e Benfica98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sport Lisboa e Benfica4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,118

Combined PnL+$210.86

FK Austria Wien3 traders

Total Value$71.67

Total Shares3,583

Combined PnL-$728.09

Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 57%FK Austria Wien — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSport Lisboa e Benfica 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFK Austria Wien 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Sport Lisboa e Benfica 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 78¢	$646.43	$793.38	+$166.76	96% 53-2 (55)
HI hithitfar	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 75.5¢	$147.69	$191.9	+$44.21	— 2-0 (2)
FL Flaznorp	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 98.1¢	$107.91	$107.8	-$0.11	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
LO lovefieldCTR	FK Austria Wienavg 26.2¢	$686.32	$52.41	-$633.91	17% 7-34 (41)
JA JabJabichCTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 10¢	$84.49	$16.9	-$67.59	8% 3-35 (38)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 98.1¢	$3.56	$3.56	-$0	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 24.5¢	$28.95	$2.36	-$26.59	43% 2572-3394 (5966)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$646.43

Value

$793.38

PnL

+$166.76

Record

96%

53-2 (55)

hithitfar

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$147.69

Value

$191.9

PnL

+$44.21

Record

—

2-0 (2)

Flaznorp

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$107.91

Value

$107.8

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

lovefieldCTR

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$686.32

Value

$52.41

PnL

-$633.91

Record

17%

7-34 (41)

JabJabichCTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$84.49

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$67.59

Record

3-35 (38)

ferdinand2<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

e46m3CTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$28.95

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$26.59

Record

43%

2572-3394 (5966)

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSport Lisboa e Benfica 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFK Austria Wien 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Sport Lisboa e Benfica 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sport Lisboa e Benfica wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.