Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $906 held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$906.19

Combined PnL

$12.49

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$710.27

Total Shares712

Combined PnL+$144.22

Over3 traders

Total Value$6.07

Total Shares637

Combined PnL-$131.72

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 79.4¢	$521.9	$656.2	+$134.3	62% 239-149 (388)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 31.1¢	$152.95	$189.84	+$36.89	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.4¢	$71.56	$134.94	+$63.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.1¢	$81.39	$54.9	-$26.49
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Underavg 95¢	$40.58	$42.66	+$2.07	99% 263-4 (267)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 58.5¢	$132.45	$6.67	+$5.8	52% 816-742 (1558)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$8.53	$5.77	-$2.77	35% 221-416 (637)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.7	$4.75	+$2.05	49% 1313-1344 (2657)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$95.41	$0.23	-$95.19	33% 587-1187 (1774)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$33.85	$0.08	-$33.77	34% 592-1166 (1758)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$521.9

Value

$656.2

PnL

+$134.3

Record

62%

239-149 (388)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$152.95

Value

$189.84

PnL

+$36.89

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

Both legs:

Under$71.5650.4¢+$63.38

Over$81.3931.1¢-$26.49

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Under

Invested

$40.58

Value

$42.66

PnL

+$2.07

Record

99%

263-4 (267)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$132.45

Value

$6.67

PnL

+$5.8

Record

52%

816-742 (1558)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.53

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$2.77

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$2.05

Record

49%

1313-1344 (2657)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.41

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$95.19

Record

33%

587-1187 (1774)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.85

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$33.77

Record

34%

592-1166 (1758)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.