Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid CF Femenino (83%) · Real Madrid CF Femenino at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10
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Neutral
Real Madrid CF Femenino
6
Real Madrid CF Femenino 83%
$3.2K
-$23.91
95.5¢ → 99.8¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralReal Madrid CF Femenino at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid CF Femenino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 95.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$24.75 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 93.6¢ | $578.61 | $516.38 | -$32.26 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SE sentrio | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 95.4¢ | $327.09 | $318.49 | -$8.59 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
 RN1<$100 | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 99.1¢ | $36.32 | $32.52 | -$3.8 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 97.2¢ | $29.98 | $30.06 | +$0.09 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Paris FCavg 4.6¢ | $5.56 | $1.45 | -$4.11 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
Invested
$2,273.09
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$24.75
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$578.61
Value
$516.38
PnL
-$32.26
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$327.09
Value
$318.49
PnL
-$8.59
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
RN1<$100Invested
$36.32
Value
$32.52
PnL
-$3.8
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$29.98
Value
$30.06
PnL
+$0.09
Record
41%
3040-4429 (7469)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$4.11
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.