Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$549.15

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 100¢

+82% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,904

Combined PnL+$552.11

Over5 traders

Total Value$17.71

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$2.96

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 47.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$220.53	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 81.4¢	$550.03	$675.66	+$125.63	59% 207-141 (348)
RN1	Underavg 52¢	$118.52	$223.3	+$104.78	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 19.4¢	$58.46	$159.21	+$100.75	25% 218-645 (863)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Underavg 97.1¢	$44.79	$45.21	+$0.42	7% 17-223 (240)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 78¢	$7	$13.58	+$6.58	47% 148-167 (315)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 3.2¢	$5.01	$3.09	-$1.92	25% 216-657 (873)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$3.21	$0.71	-$2.5	25% 217-656 (873)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$1.54	$0.22	-$1.32	44% 79-102 (181)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 78¢	$3.9	$0.1	-$3.8	31% 170-384 (554)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,581.91

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$220.53

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$550.03

Value

$675.66

PnL

+$125.63

Record

59%

207-141 (348)

RN1

Under

Invested

$118.52

Value

$223.3

PnL

+$104.78

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$58.46

Value

$159.21

PnL

+$100.75

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Under

Invested

$44.79

Value

$45.21

PnL

+$0.42

Record

17-223 (240)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$6.58

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.01

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$1.92

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.21

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$2.5

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.32

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$3.8

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.