Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 FC Bayern München?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$27.23

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,482

Combined PnL+$543.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.21

Total Shares2,420

Combined PnL-$570.97

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 78.9¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$216.62	50% 1423-1425 (2848)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 86.7¢	$937.13	$1.1K	+$118.25	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1	Noavg 73¢	$565.75	$774.61	+$208.86	58% 3768-2723 (6491)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$388.8	$0.72	-$388.08	26% 228-657 (885)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$156.73	$0.42	-$156.31	26% 229-666 (895)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$19.93	$0.05	-$19.88	26% 230-647 (877)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$6.72	$0.02	-$6.69	47% 148-167 (315)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,434.2

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$216.62

Record

50%

1423-1425 (2848)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$937.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$118.25

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1

Invested

$565.75

Value

$774.61

PnL

+$208.86

Record

58%

3768-2723 (6491)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$388.8

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$388.08

Record

26%

228-657 (885)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$156.73

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$156.31

Record

26%

229-666 (895)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.93

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$19.88

Record

26%

230-647 (877)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.72

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.69

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.