Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 7.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 91¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$13.41

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 90.6¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,596

Combined PnL-$77.87

Over6 traders

Total Value$577.86

Total Shares6,033

Combined PnL+$64.45

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 92¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$49.85	55% 715-580 (1295)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$29.51	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 90.4¢	$526.98	$528.46	+$1.49	48% 1398-1531 (2929)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 8.4¢	$370.75	$414.5	+$43.75	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 7.8¢	$63.04	$82.97	+$19.93	38% 137-223 (360)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 10.2¢	$40.5	$40.7	+$0.2	57% 4039-3053 (7092)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 10.2¢	$27.64	$27.78	+$0.14	45% 267-322 (589)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 9.7¢	$10.26	$9.94	-$0.32	31% 393-875 (1268)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 7.4¢	$1.21	$1.96	+$0.75	31% 388-857 (1245)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,946.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$49.85

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,810.84

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$29.51

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$526.98

Value

$528.46

PnL

+$1.49

Record

48%

1398-1531 (2929)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$370.75

Value

$414.5

PnL

+$43.75

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.04

Value

$82.97

PnL

+$19.93

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.5

Value

$40.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.64

Value

$27.78

PnL

+$0.14

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.26

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.32

Record

31%

393-875 (1268)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.75

Record

31%

388-857 (1245)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.