Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 0.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$4.6K
-$1.7
98.3¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 98.5¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$5.73 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
 RN1 | Overavg 98¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$28.98 | 57% 4039-3053 (7092) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 98.3¢ | $225.72 | $224.84 | +$0.36 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 98.4¢ | $102.14 | $103.58 | +$1.44 | 55% 715-580 (1295) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $38.69 | $0.48 | -$38.21 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
Invested
$2,795.5
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$5.73
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
RN1Invested
$1,456.28
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$28.98
Record
57%
4039-3053 (7092)
Invested
$225.72
Value
$224.84
PnL
+$0.36
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$102.14
Value
$103.58
PnL
+$1.44
Record
55%
715-580 (1295)
Invested
$38.69
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$38.21
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.