Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: Juventus FC O/U 0.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$69.77

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 94¢

+46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,513

Combined PnL+$251.49

Over4 traders

Total Value$119.56

Total Shares884

Combined PnL-$181.72

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 71.6¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$132.53	55% 715-580 (1295)
VE Venusian	Underavg 45¢	$441	$823.2	+$382.2	31% 394-877 (1271)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 29.8¢	$924.33	$399.25	-$525.08	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.6¢	$156.91	$218.99	+$62.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.8¢	$767.42	$180.26	-$587.16
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 34¢	$278.27	$114.58	-$163.69	38% 137-223 (360)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 83.6¢	$63.97	$65.79	+$1.82	45% 267-323 (590)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 33.1¢	$14.95	$3.16	-$11.79	30% 385-880 (1265)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 36.5¢	$5.62	$1.08	-$4.54	31% 389-859 (1248)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.43	$0.74	-$1.69	38% 358-588 (946)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,529.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$132.53

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$441

Value

$823.2

PnL

+$382.2

Record

31%

394-877 (1271)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$924.33

Value

$399.25

PnL

-$525.08

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

Both legs:

Under$156.9166.6¢+$62.08

Over$767.4229.8¢-$587.16

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$278.27

Value

$114.58

PnL

-$163.69

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$63.97

Value

$65.79

PnL

+$1.82

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.95

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$11.79

Record

30%

385-880 (1265)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.62

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$4.54

Record

31%

389-859 (1248)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.43

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$1.69

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.