Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: OL Lyonnes O/U 3.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$38.11

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$785.97

Total Shares1,345

Combined PnL+$264.28

Over3 traders

Total Value$674.45

Total Shares1,132

Combined PnL-$226.18

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 25.3¢	$453.06	$721.43	+$268.38	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 76¢	$801.36	$547.27	-$254.09	55% 715-580 (1295)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$71.35	$71.38	+$0.04	54% 88-75 (163)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 50¢	$27.91	$55.79	+$27.88	30% 384-884 (1268)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$45.63	$48.01	+$2.38	45% 267-323 (590)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$15.31	$15.95	+$0.64	59% 438-299 (737)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$0.11	$0.56	+$0.44	38% 137-223 (360)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$4.78	$0.01	-$4.77	30% 385-880 (1265)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 18.7¢	$2.8	$0.01	-$2.79	31% 389-859 (1248)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$453.06

Value

$721.43

PnL

+$268.38

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$801.36

Value

$547.27

PnL

-$254.09

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

Dreamwire<$100

Over

Invested

$71.35

Value

$71.38

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

88-75 (163)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$27.91

Value

$55.79

PnL

+$27.88

Record

30%

384-884 (1268)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.63

Value

$48.01

PnL

+$2.38

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.31

Value

$15.95

PnL

+$0.64

Record

59%

438-299 (737)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.44

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.78

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.77

Record

30%

385-880 (1265)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.79

Record

31%

389-859 (1248)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.