Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Juventus FC, while the market favors OL Lyonnes (98%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: OL Lyonnes (-4.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Juventus FC (67%) · Juventus FC at 2.5¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

OL Lyonnes98¢Juventus FC2¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Juventus FC

Consensus Traders

Juventus FC 67%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$245.31

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 2.5¢

-96% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJuventus FC at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juventus FC

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors OL Lyonnes 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

OL Lyonnes98%

Juventus FC3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OL Lyonnes3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,178

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Juventus FC6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,325

Combined PnL-$794.69

OL Lyonnes — 33%Juventus FC — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Juventus FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuventus FC 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Juventus FC 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	OL Lyonnesavg 44.6¢	$3.8K	$4.7K	+$938.42	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Juventus FCavg 66.5¢	$4.1K	$3.7K	-$423.51	55% 715-580 (1295)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Juventus FCavg 48.6¢	$396.16	$693.62	+$297.46	45% 267-323 (590)
US User7429	OL Lyonnesavg 52¢	$163.77	$272.02	+$108.25	24% 112-351 (463)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Juventus FCavg 47¢	$90.9	$170.19	+$79.29	38% 137-223 (360)
38 38791873984189CTR	Juventus FCavg 64¢	$567.62	$100.79	+$59.42	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Juventus FCavg 46.3¢	$837.69	$90.39	-$747.3	31% 389-859 (1248)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Juventus FCavg 45.3¢	$67.5	$7.45	-$60.05	30% 385-880 (1265)
LI Limousin<$100	OL Lyonnesavg 23¢	$13.95	$7.28	-$6.67	30% 384-884 (1268)

Flaznorp

OL Lyonnes

Invested

$3,808.01

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$938.42

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$4,102.96

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$423.51

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

SnakeBallCTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$396.16

Value

$693.62

PnL

+$297.46

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

User7429

OL Lyonnes

Invested

$163.77

Value

$272.02

PnL

+$108.25

Record

24%

112-351 (463)

LuckyLooCTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$90.9

Value

$170.19

PnL

+$79.29

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

38791873984189CTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$567.62

Value

$100.79

PnL

+$59.42

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

MadridTimeCTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$837.69

Value

$90.39

PnL

-$747.3

Record

31%

389-859 (1248)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Juventus FC

Invested

$67.5

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$60.05

Record

30%

385-880 (1265)

Limousin<$100

OL Lyonnes

Invested

$13.95

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$6.67

Record

30%

384-884 (1268)

Research grade

AvoidJuventus FC at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Juventus FC

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors OL Lyonnes 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Juventus FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuventus FC 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Juventus FC 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juventus FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2625.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2725.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.