Juventus FC leading at halftime?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $982 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$982.17
$114.94
78.6¢ → 100¢
+27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Noavg 49.6¢ | $164.15 | $299.59 | +$135.43 | 55% 715-580 (1295) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 93.3¢ | $229.2 | $228.53 | -$0.67 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.5¢ | $213.56 | $210.68 | -$2.88 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 92¢ | $117.25 | $119.43 | +$2.18 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $70.68 | $70.71 | +$0.03 | 31% 388-857 (1245) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $69.57 | $52.17 | -$17.39 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.23 | $1.06 | -$0.18 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.6 | $0.01 | -$1.59 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
Invested
$164.15
Value
$299.59
PnL
+$135.43
Record
55%
715-580 (1295)
Invested
$229.2
Value
$228.53
PnL
-$0.67
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Invested
$213.56
Value
$210.68
PnL
-$2.88
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$117.25
Value
$119.43
PnL
+$2.18
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$70.68
Value
$70.71
PnL
+$0.03
Record
31%
388-857 (1245)
Invested
$69.57
Value
$52.17
PnL
-$17.39
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0.18
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.59
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.