Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: Draw at halftime?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $657 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$657.06
-$15.06
73.4¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 77.3¢ | $467.68 | $492.25 | +$55.87 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $47.73 | $90.97 | +$43.24 | 55% 715-580 (1295) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $65.25 | $40.37 | -$24.88 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $60.5 | $16.5 | -$44 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $31.9 | $8.7 | -$23.2 | 31% 388-857 (1245) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $30.36 | $8.28 | -$22.08 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
Invested
$467.68
Value
$492.25
PnL
+$55.87
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$47.73
Value
$90.97
PnL
+$43.24
Record
55%
715-580 (1295)
Invested
$65.25
Value
$40.37
PnL
-$24.88
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$60.5
Value
$16.5
PnL
-$44
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$31.9
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$23.2
Record
31%
388-857 (1245)
Invested
$30.36
Value
$8.28
PnL
-$22.08
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.