Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$503.27

Smart Money Entry

38.7¢ → 100¢

+158% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,011

Combined PnL+$220.19

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,475

Combined PnL+$283.08

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 21.2¢	$605.6	$1.2K	+$576.85	57% 4039-3053 (7092)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 40.8¢	$882.48	$1.2K	+$285.95	30% 383-882 (1265)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$957.99	$1.1K	+$177.04	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$658.57	$764.43	+$105.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.2¢	$299.42	$370.6	+$71.18
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$824.57	$671.07	-$153.5	55% 715-580 (1295)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$600	$460	-$140
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.5¢	$224.57	$211.07	-$13.5
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$667.23	$310.03	-$357.2	83% 35-7 (42)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 42.1¢	$94.8	$121.65	+$26.85	31% 393-875 (1268)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$7.15	$10.35	+$3.2	38% 355-588 (943)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.3	+$0.5	78% 704-201 (905)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.3	+$0.05	30% 384-878 (1262)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 43.6¢	$32.96	$0.04	-$32.92	31% 388-857 (1245)

RN1

Over

Invested

$605.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$576.85

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$882.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$285.95

Record

30%

383-882 (1265)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$957.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$177.04

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

Both legs:

Under$658.5746.5¢+$105.86

Over$299.4237.2¢+$71.18

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$824.57

Value

$671.07

PnL

-$153.5

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

Both legs:

Over$60060¢-$140

Under$224.5757.5¢-$13.5

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$667.23

Value

$310.03

PnL

-$357.2

Record

83%

35-7 (42)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$94.8

Value

$121.65

PnL

+$26.85

Record

31%

393-875 (1268)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.15

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$3.2

Record

38%

355-588 (943)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.5

Record

78%

704-201 (905)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

384-878 (1262)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.96

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$32.92

Record

31%

388-857 (1245)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.