Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: 1st Half O/U 0.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$73.64

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,861

Combined PnL+$39.57

Under5 traders

Total Value$0.75

Total Shares752

Combined PnL-$113.21

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$17.71	83% 35-7 (42)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 84.4¢	$687.5	$624.4	-$63.1	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 68.2¢	$183.08	$268.04	+$84.96	55% 715-580 (1295)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$63.66	$0.53	-$63.13	45% 267-322 (589)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$24.22	$0.12	-$24.1	31% 388-857 (1245)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 28.4¢	$15.32	$0.05	-$15.27	30% 383-882 (1265)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$3.78	$0.03	-$3.75	31% 393-875 (1268)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 28.7¢	$6.98	$0.02	-$6.96	57% 4039-3053 (7092)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$1,948.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$17.71

Record

83%

35-7 (42)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$687.5

Value

$624.4

PnL

-$63.1

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$183.08

Value

$268.04

PnL

+$84.96

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.66

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$63.13

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.22

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$24.1

Record

31%

388-857 (1245)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.32

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$15.27

Record

30%

383-882 (1265)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.78

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.75

Record

31%

393-875 (1268)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.98

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.96

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.