Exact Score: Juventus FC 1 - 2 OL Lyonnes?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$14.26

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,326

Combined PnL-$22.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$30.79

Total Shares385

Combined PnL+$7.9

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 93.3¢	$612.25	$603.56	-$8.69	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
RN1	Noavg 96¢	$456.96	$437.92	-$19.04	57% 4039-3053 (7092)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 93¢	$163.87	$169.16	+$5.29	30% 384-878 (1262)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$15.89	$21.19	+$5.3	55% 715-580 (1295)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 93¢	$15.15	$15.63	+$0.49	38% 355-588 (943)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$6	$8	+$2	52% 471-435 (906)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.6	-$0.2	30% 383-882 (1265)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1	$1.6	+$0.6	31% 388-857 (1245)

Flaznorp

Invested

$612.25

Value

$603.56

PnL

-$8.69

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

RN1

Invested

$456.96

Value

$437.92

PnL

-$19.04

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

LightParadox

Invested

$163.87

Value

$169.16

PnL

+$5.29

Record

30%

384-878 (1262)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.89

Value

$21.19

PnL

+$5.3

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15.63

PnL

+$0.49

Record

38%

355-588 (943)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$2

Record

52%

471-435 (906)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

30%

383-882 (1265)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

31%

388-857 (1245)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.