Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Juventus FC 0 - 4 OL Lyonnes?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $665 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$664.99
-$19.63
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $540.19 | $593.36 | +$53.16 | 55% 715-580 (1295) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.5¢ | $506.3 | $431.23 | -$75.07 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $33.89 | $162.13 | +$128.23 | |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $27.45 | $37.2 | +$9.75 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $25.27 | $26.66 | +$1.39 | 24% 37-118 (155) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $12.97 | $7.7 | -$5.27 | 31% 389-859 (1248) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $17.33 | $0.05 | -$17.28 | 31% 394-877 (1271) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $7.22 | $0.02 | -$7.2 | 30% 385-880 (1265) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $1.02 | $0 | -$1.02 | 30% 384-884 (1268) |
Invested
$540.19
Value
$593.36
PnL
+$53.16
Record
55%
715-580 (1295)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.45
Value
$37.2
PnL
+$9.75
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$25.27
Value
$26.66
PnL
+$1.39
Record
24%
37-118 (155)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$5.27
Record
31%
389-859 (1248)
Invested
$17.33
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$17.28
Record
31%
394-877 (1271)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$7.2
Record
30%
385-880 (1265)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.02
Record
30%
384-884 (1268)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.