FC Internazionale Milano vs. Manchester City WFC: O/U 5.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 10

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$618

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 100¢

+81% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,527

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares6,004

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 55¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$326.71	58% 3768-2723 (6491)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 45.9¢	$946.27	$1.6K	+$1.0K	26% 228-657 (885)
VE Venusian	Underavg 48.7¢	$683.45	$1.4K	+$720.66	25% 224-671 (895)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$2.9K	$1.1K	$-1.8K	50% 1423-1425 (2848)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$47.48	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.2¢	$532.29	$719.28	+$186.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.6¢	$514.94	$375.44	-$139.51
MA maxiplayerARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$12.94	— 2-1 (3)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$502.03	$612.49	+$110.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$523.53	$426.01	-$97.52
DA dashattacker	Underavg 63.1¢	$595.86	$944.18	+$348.32	59% 207-141 (348)
CI cigarettes	Underavg 93.1¢	$453.46	$474.15	+$20.7	53% 5440-4884 (10324)
PA pauleta23	Underavg 54¢	$400	$370.47	+$2.02	23% 132-437 (569)
LI Limousin	Underavg 40¢	$103	$228.7	+$129.93	26% 229-666 (895)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 80¢	$79.2	$84.05	+$4.85	50% 171-170 (341)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$18.84	$16.64	-$2.2	42% 208-292 (500)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 15.3¢	$193.18	$0.63	-$192.55	26% 230-647 (877)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,569.07

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$326.71

Record

58%

3768-2723 (6491)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$946.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

26%

228-657 (885)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$683.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$720.66

Record

25%

224-671 (895)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$2,946.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

50%

1423-1425 (2848)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,047.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$47.48

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Under$532.2954.2¢+$186.98

Over$514.9436.6¢-$139.51

maxiplayerARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,025.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.94

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Both legs:

Under$502.0347.9¢+$110.46

Over$523.5351¢-$97.52

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$595.86

Value

$944.18

PnL

+$348.32

Record

59%

207-141 (348)

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$453.46

Value

$474.15

PnL

+$20.7

Record

53%

5440-4884 (10324)

pauleta23

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$370.47

PnL

+$2.02

Record

23%

132-437 (569)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$103

Value

$228.7

PnL

+$129.93

Record

26%

229-666 (895)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$79.2

Value

$84.05

PnL

+$4.85

Record

50%

171-170 (341)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.84

Value

$16.64

PnL

-$2.2

Record

42%

208-292 (500)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$193.18

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$192.55

Record

26%

230-647 (877)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.