FC Internazionale Milano vs. Manchester City WFC: Draw at halftime?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 67¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$222
-$0.07
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 68.4¢ | $151.11 | $153.53 | +$2.42 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $27.64 | $27.19 | -$0.45 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $28.16 | $26.84 | -$1.32 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $14 | $13.34 | -$0.66 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $1.53 | -$0.08 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
Invested
$151.11
Value
$153.53
PnL
+$2.42
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$27.64
Value
$27.19
PnL
-$0.45
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
Invested
$28.16
Value
$26.84
PnL
-$1.32
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$14
Value
$13.34
PnL
-$0.66
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$0.08
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.