BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 82¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$168.43

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 82.2¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$644.7

Total Shares680

Combined PnL+$32.36

Under6 traders

Total Value$499.5

Total Shares3,294

Combined PnL+$136.07

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 90.3¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$361.63	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ Over leg	Overavg 90.3¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$155.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 5.9¢	$256.84	$773.7	+$516.86
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 86.7¢	$515.89	$557.52	+$41.63	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 9.5¢	$73.62	$139.15	+$65.53	25% 218-637 (855)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 12.3¢	$90.87	$132.36	+$41.49	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 11.5¢	$110.07	$120.54	+$10.47	25% 218-645 (863)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 11.9¢	$73.3	$77	+$3.69	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 97.8¢	$49.98	$44.7	-$5.28	41% 3040-4429 (7469)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 96.8¢	$46.48	$42.49	-$3.99	31% 170-384 (554)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 11.8¢	$13.77	$20.24	+$6.47	25% 216-657 (873)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 2.2¢	$1.8	$10.21	+$8.41	44% 79-102 (181)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,001.64

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$361.63

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

Over$1,744.890.3¢-$155.23

Under$256.845.9¢+$516.86

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$515.89

Value

$557.52

PnL

+$41.63

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$73.62

Value

$139.15

PnL

+$65.53

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$90.87

Value

$132.36

PnL

+$41.49

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$110.07

Value

$120.54

PnL

+$10.47

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.3

Value

$77

PnL

+$3.69

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$49.98

Value

$44.7

PnL

-$5.28

Record

41%

3040-4429 (7469)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$46.48

Value

$42.49

PnL

-$3.99

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.77

Value

$20.24

PnL

+$6.47

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.8

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$8.41

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.9%

82.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.