BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$5.3K
$1.6K
51.8¢ → 100¢
+93% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 49.1¢ | $1.7K | $2.9K | +$1.2K | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 69¢ | $990.51 | $1.1K | +$62.46 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 81¢ | $510 | $629.31 | +$119.31 | 59% 207-141 (348) |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 37.5¢ | $172.93 | $408.34 | +$235.41 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 47.4¢ | $51.99 | $97.92 | +$45.93 | 22% 123-426 (549) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 25.5¢ | $26.51 | $92.64 | +$66.13 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
LO lonmi2511CTR | Overavg 80¢ | $192 | $25.78 | -$166.22 | 61% 630-411 (1041) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $8.18 | $18.26 | +$10.08 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $68.28 | $18.09 | -$50.19 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
RN1Invested
$1,703.35
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$990.51
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$62.46
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$510
Value
$629.31
PnL
+$119.31
Record
59%
207-141 (348)
Invested
$172.93
Value
$408.34
PnL
+$235.41
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$51.99
Value
$97.92
PnL
+$45.93
Record
22%
123-426 (549)
Invested
$26.51
Value
$92.64
PnL
+$66.13
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$192
Value
$25.78
PnL
-$166.22
Record
61%
630-411 (1041)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$18.26
PnL
+$10.08
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$68.28
Value
$18.09
PnL
-$50.19
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.