US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$8.0K
-$6.21
59.2¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 pIebe | Noavg 59.3¢ | $5.5K | $4.5K | -$10.7 | 62% 916-565 (1481) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$28.61 | 66% 4490-2317 (6807) |
88 881112CTR | Yesavg 39.3¢ | $891.55 | $896.36 | -$74.61 | 36% 600-1055 (1655) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 58.5¢ | $234 | $256 | +$22 | 55% 17610-14529 (32139) |
 PorxCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $120 | $121.5 | +$1.5 | 66% 1526-790 (2316) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 57.6¢ | $95.36 | $105.98 | +$10.62 | 32% 21107-45346 (66453) |
 classifiedCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $100.32 | $101.57 | +$1.25 | 57% 871-649 (1520) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $81.48 | $92.16 | +$10.68 | 73% 3689-1397 (5086) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $35.61 | $38.44 | +$2.83 | 57% 24613-18229 (42842) |
JO JokerTheClown<$100 | Noavg 53.1¢ | $21.75 | $23.37 | +$1.61 | 44% 4193-5387 (9580) |
pIebeInvested
$5,525.32
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$10.7
Record
62%
916-565 (1481)
CarCTRInvested
$1,844.16
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$28.61
Record
66%
4490-2317 (6807)
Invested
$891.55
Value
$896.36
PnL
-$74.61
Record
36%
600-1055 (1655)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$234
Value
$256
PnL
+$22
Record
55%
17610-14529 (32139)
PorxCTRInvested
$120
Value
$121.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
66%
1526-790 (2316)
Invested
$95.36
Value
$105.98
PnL
+$10.62
Record
32%
21107-45346 (66453)
classifiedCTRInvested
$100.32
Value
$101.57
PnL
+$1.25
Record
57%
871-649 (1520)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$81.48
Value
$92.16
PnL
+$10.68
Record
73%
3689-1397 (5086)
Invested
$35.61
Value
$38.44
PnL
+$2.83
Record
57%
24613-18229 (42842)
Invested
$21.75
Value
$23.37
PnL
+$1.61
Record
44%
4193-5387 (9580)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.