US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (81%) · Yes at 76¢ · $15K held · ends Dec 31

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 81%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

-$245.15

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 75.5¢

-5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares16,059

Combined PnL-$649.73

No3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares10,278

Combined PnL+$404.58

Yes — 81%No — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rainbowlilies	Yesavg 81.9¢	$6.6K	$6.2K	-$591.74	38% 3017-4847 (7864)
pIebe	Yesavg 76¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$13.21	62% 927-565 (1492)
CA cashyCTR	Noavg 21.3¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$217.48	71% 623-259 (882)
HoshinoAI	Yesavg 78.7¢	$1.5K	$925.49	-$42.99	4% 1-22 (23)
MEPPCTR	Noavg 14¢	$361.52	$516.46	+$154.94	64% 645-361 (1006)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 76.6¢	$518.04	$412.66	-$7.88	57% 41422-31202 (72624)
classified	Yesavg 75¢	$371.3	$373.77	+$2.48	57% 871-650 (1521)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 80.5¢	$322	$320	-$2	55% 17610-14530 (32140)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 80.2¢	$214.07	$201.46	-$12.61	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
SP SPLPB	Yesavg 78¢	$191.8	$181.96	-$9.84	22% 828-2960 (3788)
88 881112CTR	Noavg 16¢	$128.67	$160.82	+$32.15	36% 600-1056 (1656)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 73¢	$114.85	$118.78	+$3.93	49% 22829-23658 (46487)
Parz1vaI<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$79.31	$82.4	+$3.09	73% 3689-1397 (5086)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$82.68	$80.03	-$2.65	22% 1863-6612 (8475)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 78.5¢	$60.79	$58.49	-$2.3	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 76.3¢	$87	$45.66	-$0.43	16% 415-2207 (2622)

rainbowlilies

Yes

Invested

$6,629.21

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$591.74

Record

38%

3017-4847 (7864)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$3,291.19

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$13.21

Record

62%

927-565 (1492)

cashyCTR

Invested

$1,471.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$217.48

Record

71%

623-259 (882)

HoshinoAI

Yes

Invested

$1,523.84

Value

$925.49

PnL

-$42.99

Record

1-22 (23)

MEPPCTR

Invested

$361.52

Value

$516.46

PnL

+$154.94

Record

64%

645-361 (1006)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$518.04

Value

$412.66

PnL

-$7.88

Record

57%

41422-31202 (72624)

classified

Yes

Invested

$371.3

Value

$373.77

PnL

+$2.48

Record

57%

871-650 (1521)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$322

Value

$320

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

17610-14530 (32140)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$214.07

Value

$201.46

PnL

-$12.61

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

SPLPB

Yes

Invested

$191.8

Value

$181.96

PnL

-$9.84

Record

22%

828-2960 (3788)

881112CTR

Invested

$128.67

Value

$160.82

PnL

+$32.15

Record

36%

600-1056 (1656)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$114.85

Value

$118.78

PnL

+$3.93

Record

49%

22829-23658 (46487)

Parz1vaI<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.31

Value

$82.4

PnL

+$3.09

Record

73%

3689-1397 (5086)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.68

Value

$80.03

PnL

-$2.65

Record

22%

1863-6612 (8475)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.79

Value

$58.49

PnL

-$2.3

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$87

Value

$45.66

PnL

-$0.43

Record

16%

415-2207 (2622)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.5%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.