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4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 96¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 7

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.0K

Combined PnL

-$616.32

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 96.3¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$31.0K

Total Shares32,286

Combined PnL-$577.66

Yes6 traders

Total Value$106.11

Total Shares3,330

Combined PnL-$38.66

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
V1 V1nch0u	Noavg 98¢	$30.4K	$29.8K	-$623.65	98% 2239-36 (2275)
CO Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100	Noavg 96¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$92.83	41% 30-43 (73)
└ No leg	Noavg 96¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$3.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.1¢	$475.43	$564.72	+$89.29
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 96.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.16	56% 18152-14046 (32198)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 54¢	$60.75	$108	+$47.25	36% 2155-3860 (6015)
xxNyxCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$45.9	$35.7	-$10.2	82% 1764-396 (2160)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$80.15	$32.86	-$4.23	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$36.87	$22.5	-$14.37	66% 570-300 (870)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$18.34	$9.5	-$8.84	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
BR browne<$100	Noavg 97¢	$8.79	$8.7	-$0.09	71% 180-73 (253)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$6.07	$5.12	-$0.96	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
MO Monopoly_MoneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$0.49	$0.43	-$0.06	62% 159-96 (255)

V1nch0u

Invested

$30,384.63

Value

$29.8K

PnL

-$623.65

Record

98%

2239-36 (2275)

Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100

Invested

$1,804.68

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$92.83

Record

41%

30-43 (73)

Both legs:

No$1,329.2596¢+$3.54

Yes$475.433.1¢+$89.29

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$1,117.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.16

Record

56%

18152-14046 (32198)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$60.75

Value

$108

PnL

+$47.25

Record

36%

2155-3860 (6015)

xxNyxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.9

Value

$35.7

PnL

-$10.2

Record

82%

1764-396 (2160)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.15

Value

$32.86

PnL

-$4.23

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.87

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$14.37

Record

66%

570-300 (870)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.34

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$8.84

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

browne<$100

Invested

$8.79

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.09

Record

71%

180-73 (253)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.07

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.96

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

Monopoly_MoneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.06

Record

62%

159-96 (255)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.