Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 2027?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 97¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 97.5¢

+13% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,761

Combined PnL+$913.32

Yes5 traders

Total Value$155.74

Total Shares5,969

Combined PnL+$204.1

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BloodyMummer	Noavg 91.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$111.58	77% 576-168 (744)
Lucerys	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	+$11.1	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.6¢	$689.8	$690.1	+$0.3	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
balthazar	Noavg 58.5¢	$637.74	$660.61	+$288.23	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 67¢	$405.63	$411.6	+$173.72	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.9¢	$372.16	$369.92	-$2.24	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 96.8¢	$1.1K	$356.93	-$259.65	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 97.7¢	$336.63	$339.58	-$2.08	73% 2988-1086 (4074)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 14.9¢	$131.4	$311.52	+$587.54	61% 15895-10161 (26056)
AN anothercoin	Noavg 97¢	$274.9	$275.91	+$1.01	50% 634-639 (1273)
Istaroth	Noavg 97.2¢	$501.96	$200.61	-$0.88	15% 459-2699 (3158)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$110.64	$136.05	+$25.4	56% 270-211 (481)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$98.45	$98.6	+$0.15	53% 84-75 (159)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$78.32	$77.61	-$0.58	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$86.34	$61.13	+$0.37	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$52.49	$52.62	+$0.14	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$7.84	$16.5	+$8.66	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
LP lpgb	Noavg 97¢	$251.68	$10.78	+$4.62	27% 453-1221 (1674)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$51.54	$2.88	+$171.05	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.47	$0.25	-$0.21	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$0.86	$0.06	-$0.8	17% 1213-5822 (7035)

BloodyMummer

Invested

$1,574.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$111.58

Record

77%

576-168 (744)

Lucerys

Invested

$1,875.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.1

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$689.8

Value

$690.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

balthazar

Invested

$637.74

Value

$660.61

PnL

+$288.23

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

e46m3

Invested

$405.63

Value

$411.6

PnL

+$173.72

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

cigarettes

Invested

$372.16

Value

$369.92

PnL

-$2.24

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,081.9

Value

$356.93

PnL

-$259.65

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$336.63

Value

$339.58

PnL

-$2.08

Record

73%

2988-1086 (4074)

northdrawer

Invested

$131.4

Value

$311.52

PnL

+$587.54

Record

61%

15895-10161 (26056)

anothercoin

Invested

$274.9

Value

$275.91

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

Istaroth

Invested

$501.96

Value

$200.61

PnL

-$0.88

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.64

Value

$136.05

PnL

+$25.4

Record

56%

270-211 (481)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$98.45

Value

$98.6

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

84-75 (159)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$78.32

Value

$77.61

PnL

-$0.58

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

merod<$100

Invested

$86.34

Value

$61.13

PnL

+$0.37

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

korda77<$100

Invested

$52.49

Value

$52.62

PnL

+$0.14

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.84

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$8.66

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

lpgb

Invested

$251.68

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$4.62

Record

27%

453-1221 (1674)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.54

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$171.05

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.8

Record

17%

1213-5822 (7035)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.