Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 2027?

17 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 97¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$658.02

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 97.3¢

+9% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,232

Combined PnL+$670.72

Yes6 traders

Total Value$88.7

Total Shares4,228

Combined PnL-$12.7

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BloodyMummer	Noavg 91.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$111.58	77% 563-168 (731)
Lucerys	Noavg 96¢	$1.6K	$792.38	+$26.64	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.6¢	$649.82	$655.95	+$6.13	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 97.4¢	$501.43	$452.98	+$9.97	50% 9583-9583 (19166)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 67¢	$405.63	$415.35	+$177.47	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
balthazar	Noavg 65.7¢	$373.35	$406.8	+$146.34	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 96.8¢	$776.3	$366.16	+$15.18	43% 3100-4146 (7246)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 97.7¢	$336.63	$342.87	+$6.24	73% 2970-1079 (4049)
Istaroth	Noavg 97.2¢	$501.96	$199.93	-$1.57	15% 435-2472 (2907)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 94.6¢	$203.72	$169.52	+$8.38	62% 14630-9158 (23788)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 25.8¢	$58.08	$164.27	+$155.49	61% 15726-10029 (25755)
AN anothercoin	Noavg 96.6¢	$144.18	$148.55	+$4.37	49% 527-555 (1082)
PI PiEDawg	Noavg 97.4¢	$289.41	$99.58	+$2.09	48% 1673-1799 (3472)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$99.41	$99.56	+$0.15	43% 39-52 (91)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$60.12	$83.34	+$23.22	56% 267-209 (476)
LP lpgb	Noavg 96.3¢	$151.99	$75.41	+$0.81	26% 353-995 (1348)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$86.34	$61.69	+$0.93	42% 2956-4064 (7020)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98¢	$32.11	$32.5	+$0.52	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$7.59	$2.82	-$4.77	20% 2535-10042 (12577)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$51.54	$1.45	-$22.29	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$35.5	$1.02	-$5.71	56% 18179-14063 (32242)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.47	$0.06	-$0.41	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$4.82	$0.01	-$2.74	17% 1105-5456 (6561)

BloodyMummer

Invested

$1,574.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$111.58

Record

77%

563-168 (731)

Lucerys

Invested

$1,636.59

Value

$792.38

PnL

+$26.64

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$649.82

Value

$655.95

PnL

+$6.13

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

quietparcel

Invested

$501.43

Value

$452.98

PnL

+$9.97

Record

50%

9583-9583 (19166)

e46m3

Invested

$405.63

Value

$415.35

PnL

+$177.47

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

balthazar

Invested

$373.35

Value

$406.8

PnL

+$146.34

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$776.3

Value

$366.16

PnL

+$15.18

Record

43%

3100-4146 (7246)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$336.63

Value

$342.87

PnL

+$6.24

Record

73%

2970-1079 (4049)

Istaroth

Invested

$501.96

Value

$199.93

PnL

-$1.57

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

graynotebook19

Invested

$203.72

Value

$169.52

PnL

+$8.38

Record

62%

14630-9158 (23788)

northdrawer

Invested

$58.08

Value

$164.27

PnL

+$155.49

Record

61%

15726-10029 (25755)

anothercoin

Invested

$144.18

Value

$148.55

PnL

+$4.37

Record

49%

527-555 (1082)

PiEDawg

Invested

$289.41

Value

$99.58

PnL

+$2.09

Record

48%

1673-1799 (3472)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$99.41

Value

$99.56

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

39-52 (91)

MenacingTurtleCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.12

Value

$83.34

PnL

+$23.22

Record

56%

267-209 (476)

lpgb

Invested

$151.99

Value

$75.41

PnL

+$0.81

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

merod<$100

Invested

$86.34

Value

$61.69

PnL

+$0.93

Record

42%

2956-4064 (7020)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$32.11

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$0.52

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.59

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$4.77

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.54

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$22.29

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.5

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$5.71

Record

56%

18179-14063 (32242)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.41

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.74

Record

17%

1105-5456 (6561)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.