US imports Russian diesel by January 31?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 76¢ · $6K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$740.94

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 75.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares7,304

Combined PnL+$748.71

Yes5 traders

Total Value$174.46

Total Shares648

Combined PnL-$7.77

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

156h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1N 1nvoker1	Noavg 81.2¢	$1.4K	$4.8K	+$822.98	61% 462-299 (761)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 81.8¢	$637.27	$565.05	-$72.22	55% 17610-14530 (32140)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 37.9¢	$353.49	$178.02	+$46.43	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.9¢	$174.33	$112.65	+$18.16
└ No leg	Noavg 48.8¢	$42.28	$65.38	+$28.28
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$85.74	$104.8	+$19.05	52% 8995-8175 (17170)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$96.83	$93.29	-$3.54	49% 22829-23658 (46487)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 74¢	$74	$75.5	+$1.5	14% 9495-60723 (70218)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$17.78	$33.19	+$15.41	46% 132-154 (286)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Yesavg 48.7¢	$241.18	$14.7	-$27.19	22% 1863-6612 (8475)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$110.64	$13.72	-$19.14	16% 415-2207 (2622)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$33.17	$8.05	+$4.09	30% 35274-83611 (118885)

1nvoker1

Invested

$1,372.4

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$822.98

Record

61%

462-299 (761)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$637.27

Value

$565.05

PnL

-$72.22

Record

55%

17610-14530 (32140)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$353.49

Value

$178.02

PnL

+$46.43

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

Both legs:

Yes$174.3337.9¢+$18.16

No$42.2848.8¢+$28.28

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$85.74

Value

$104.8

PnL

+$19.05

Record

52%

8995-8175 (17170)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$96.83

Value

$93.29

PnL

-$3.54

Record

49%

22829-23658 (46487)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$74

Value

$75.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

14%

9495-60723 (70218)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.78

Value

$33.19

PnL

+$15.41

Record

46%

132-154 (286)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Yes

Invested

$241.18

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$27.19

Record

22%

1863-6612 (8475)

SulkingCryptoCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.64

Value

$13.72

PnL

-$19.14

Record

16%

415-2207 (2622)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.17

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$4.09

Record

30%

35274-83611 (118885)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

156h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.