US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 15, 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$3.4K
$88.93
72¢ → 75¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4 | Noavg 75¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | — |
 Marco-Rubio | Noavg 72.3¢ | $662.06 | $686.52 | +$24.46 | — 0-1 (1) |
 paddaa | Noavg 67¢ | $600 | $671.64 | +$71.64 | 60% 497-335 (832) |
GR grothCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $624 | $624 | +$0 | 2% 1-46 (47) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 70.2¢ | $197.28 | $183.45 | +$1.96 | 41% 3064-4447 (7511) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $84.23 | $78.1 | -$6.12 | 45% 132-162 (294) |
BA badatthisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $81 | $78 | -$3 | — |
Invested
$1,125
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
—
Marco-RubioInvested
$662.06
Value
$686.52
PnL
+$24.46
Record
—
0-1 (1)
paddaaInvested
$600
Value
$671.64
PnL
+$71.64
Record
60%
497-335 (832)
Invested
$624
Value
$624
PnL
+$0
Record
2%
1-46 (47)
Invested
$197.28
Value
$183.45
PnL
+$1.96
Record
41%
3064-4447 (7511)
Invested
$84.23
Value
$78.1
PnL
-$6.12
Record
45%
132-162 (294)
Invested
$81
Value
$78
PnL
-$3
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.