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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.

Will CA Cerro win on 2026-11-14?

Resolved Yes. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$268.9

Combined PnL

-$123.75

Smart Money Signal

No

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$144.9

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$120.43

No6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares289

Combined PnL-$244.19

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 24.1¢	$177.51	$124	-$53.51	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.3¢	$87.2	$124	+$36.8
└ No leg	Noavg 24.1¢	$90.31	—	-$90.31
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 14.5¢	$19.34	$133.5	+$114.16	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$89.16	—	-$89.16	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 86¢	$59.03	—	-$59.03	35% 520-947 (1467)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$51.6	—	-$51.6	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$35.42	—	-$35.42	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
alpheclabs2<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$4.77	$8.83	+$4.06	46% 316-377 (693)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.36	$2.57	+$2.21	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 84¢	$7.42	—	-$7.42	32% 385-828 (1213)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.56	—	-$1.56	38% 1175-1954 (3129)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$177.51

Value

$124

PnL

-$53.51

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Both legs:

Yes$87.270.3¢+$36.8

No$90.3124.1¢-$90.31

Invested

$19.34

Value

$133.5

PnL

+$114.16

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$89.16

Value

—

PnL

-$89.16

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$59.03

Value

—

PnL

-$59.03

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$51.6

Value

—

PnL

-$51.6

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$35.42

Value

—

PnL

-$35.42

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

alpheclabs2<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$4.06

Record

46%

316-377 (693)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$2.21

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$7.42

Value

—

PnL

-$7.42

Record

32%

385-828 (1213)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$1.56

Value

—

PnL

-$1.56

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Smart Money Signal

No

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x37e1b547...1e7719

Slug

uru1-mal-cer-2026-11-14-cer

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

GoalLineGhost

Yes — $133.5

Venusian

No — $0

LuckyLoo

No — $0

xtxpleasecallme

No — $0

MadridTime

No — $0

alpheclabs2

Yes — $8.83

VeryLucky888

Yes — $2.57

tradecraft

No — $0

topdogbigboi

No — $0

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