Will Cerro Largo FC vs. CA Progreso end in a draw?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$1.9K
-$116.04
78.5¢ → 83.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 80.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$41.49 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $371.76 | $267.03 | -$104.73 | 6% 21-316 (337) |
WA WagerWizard | Noavg 75.4¢ | $202.54 | $230.95 | +$28.41 | 20% 47-184 (231) |
 poshposh | Noavg 74.7¢ | $165.65 | $181.22 | +$15.57 | 48% 652-699 (1351) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $83.95 | $88.23 | +$4.28 | 45% 465-578 (1043) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $36.96 | $45.65 | +$8.69 | 30% 233-531 (764) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $47.86 | $25.65 | -$20.82 | 23% 193-656 (849) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $26.62 | $21.32 | -$5.3 | 43% 400-536 (936) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $0.95 | -$0.65 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
Invested
$1,079.75
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$41.49
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$371.76
Value
$267.03
PnL
-$104.73
Record
6%
21-316 (337)
Invested
$202.54
Value
$230.95
PnL
+$28.41
Record
20%
47-184 (231)
poshposhInvested
$165.65
Value
$181.22
PnL
+$15.57
Record
48%
652-699 (1351)
Invested
$83.95
Value
$88.23
PnL
+$4.28
Record
45%
465-578 (1043)
Invested
$36.96
Value
$45.65
PnL
+$8.69
Record
30%
233-531 (764)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$47.86
Value
$25.65
PnL
-$20.82
Record
23%
193-656 (849)
Invested
$26.62
Value
$21.32
PnL
-$5.3
Record
43%
400-536 (936)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$0.65
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.