Will Portugal win on 2026-11-17?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 66¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 17

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$101.21

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 66¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,508

Combined PnL-$100.26

No4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares9,262

Combined PnL+$201.47

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 71¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$100	46% 36-43 (79)
TY Tys0n8686CTR	Noavg 28.8¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$198.86	65% 15-8 (23)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 69¢	$295.91	$295.91	-$0	61% 1050-661 (1711)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$33.81	$36.14	+$2.33	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$31.68	$31.92	+$0.24	55% 532-434 (966)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 67.8¢	$17.37	$17.04	-$0.33	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$4.11	$3.94	-$0.17	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.55	+$0.1	48% 2231-2388 (4619)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.19	$0.37	+$0.18	44% 22-28 (50)

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$3,550

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$100

Record

46%

36-43 (79)

Tys0n8686CTR

Invested

$2,634.32

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$198.86

Record

65%

15-8 (23)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$295.91

Value

$295.91

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

1050-661 (1711)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$33.81

Value

$36.14

PnL

+$2.33

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.68

Value

$31.92

PnL

+$0.24

Record

55%

532-434 (966)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.37

Value

$17.04

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.11

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.17

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2231-2388 (4619)

guilttripCTR<$100

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.37

PnL

+$0.18

Record

44%

22-28 (50)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.