Will Türkiye win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 76¢ · $704 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$704.21
-$7.31
74.6¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 74.9¢ | $411.99 | $406.99 | -$5 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Noavg 74¢ | $146.31 | $146.31 | -$0 | 61% 899-577 (1476) |
OD OddstormCTR | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $116.16 | $113.9 | -$2.26 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $25.36 | $25.36 | +$0 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $5.94 | $5.83 | -$0.11 | — 2-11 (13) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $5.76 | $5.82 | +$0.06 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
Invested
$411.99
Value
$406.99
PnL
-$5
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$146.31
Value
$146.31
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
899-577 (1476)
Invested
$116.16
Value
$113.9
PnL
-$2.26
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$25.36
Value
$25.36
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$5.94
Value
$5.83
PnL
-$0.11
Record
—
2-11 (13)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$5.82
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.