Türkiye vs. Belgium: Türkiye O/U 0.5

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$80.82

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,501

Combined PnL+$4.02

Under10 traders

Total Value$669.94

Total Shares3,045

Combined PnL-$84.84

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-69 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.24	99% 147-2 (149)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 24.9¢	$598.31	$527.9	-$70.41	46% 440-515 (955)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$97.35	$89.24	-$8.11	36% 209-369 (578)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$15.94	$13.48	-$2.45	32% 534-1112 (1646)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 74¢	$9.62	$12.4	+$2.77	54% 994-856 (1850)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$9.91	$9.91	+$0	27% 182-490 (672)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$10.4	$8.8	-$1.6	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$7.73	$7.39	-$0.34	47% 532-590 (1122)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$7.15	$6.29	-$0.86	32% 538-1128 (1666)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$5.2	$4.4	-$0.8	33% 558-1111 (1669)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$1.43	$1.37	-$0.06	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.35	$1.14	-$0.21	42% 291-405 (696)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$2,487.43

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.24

Record

99%

147-2 (149)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$598.31

Value

$527.9

PnL

-$70.41

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$97.35

Value

$89.24

PnL

-$8.11

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.94

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$2.45

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$9.62

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$2.77

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

182-490 (672)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.4

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$1.6

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.73

Value

$7.39

PnL

-$0.34

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.15

Value

$6.29

PnL

-$0.86

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.21

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-69 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.