Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Türkiye vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$465.89

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,749

Combined PnL-$0.24

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,985

Combined PnL+$466.13

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0.87	99% 147-2 (149)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 39.7¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$293.8	46% 440-515 (955)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 43.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$103.35	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 40¢	$211.52	$253.82	+$42.3	32% 538-1128 (1666)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 38.4¢	$50.11	$62.7	+$12.59	52% 187-174 (361)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$54.34	$59.28	+$4.94	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$24.21	$28.32	+$4.11	33% 553-1135 (1688)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 40.2¢	$22.69	$27.1	+$4.4	54% 994-856 (1850)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 64¢	$5.14	$4.18	-$0.96	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.2	$3.84	+$0.64	33% 558-1111 (1669)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 61¢	$1	$0.85	-$0.15	14% 29-185 (214)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$1,737.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0.87

Record

99%

147-2 (149)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,400.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$293.8

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,120.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$103.35

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$211.52

Value

$253.82

PnL

+$42.3

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.11

Value

$62.7

PnL

+$12.59

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.34

Value

$59.28

PnL

+$4.94

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.21

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$4.11

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.69

Value

$27.1

PnL

+$4.4

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$5.14

Value

$4.18

PnL

-$0.96

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.64

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.