Türkiye vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$1.4K
$154.18
82¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 82.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$110.95 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $55.72 | $56.36 | +$0.65 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $35.09 | $36.4 | +$1.31 | 53% 6191-5476 (11667) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $27.62 | $32.04 | +$4.42 | 66% 31-16 (47) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $20.78 | $27.76 | +$6.98 | 55% 1645-1352 (2997) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 42.6¢ | $115.77 | $19.01 | +$39.9 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $17.4 | -$0.8 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $5 | +$1.15 | 40% 3295-4922 (8217) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.65 | $4.25 | -$0.4 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $1 | $1.56 | +$0.56 | 14% 29-185 (214) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $10.56 | $0.02 | -$10.54 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
Invested
$1,063.13
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$110.95
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
RN1<$100Invested
$55.72
Value
$56.36
PnL
+$0.65
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$35.09
Value
$36.4
PnL
+$1.31
Record
53%
6191-5476 (11667)
Invested
$27.62
Value
$32.04
PnL
+$4.42
Record
66%
31-16 (47)
Invested
$20.78
Value
$27.76
PnL
+$6.98
Record
55%
1645-1352 (2997)
Invested
$115.77
Value
$19.01
PnL
+$39.9
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$0.8
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.15
Record
40%
3295-4922 (8217)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.25
PnL
-$0.4
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0.56
Record
14%
29-185 (214)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$10.54
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.