Türkiye vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 3.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 99.3¢

+39% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,718

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.26

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$8.81

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 66.1¢	$3.4K	$4.9K	+$1.4K	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 79.2¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$630.19	61% 234-149 (383)
RN1	Underavg 70.7¢	$1.2K	$976.19	-$220.72	56% 4502-3474 (7976)
SM Smallcoins	Underavg 52¢	$114.33	$217.66	+$103.33	1% 2-222 (224)
ER72SEN	Underavg 95.3¢	$1.6K	$183.61	+$93.91	— 11-2 (13)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 93.4¢	$116.08	$120.03	+$3.96	46% 443-515 (958)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100	Underavg 99¢	$78.01	$78.01	+$0	86% 44-7 (51)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 61.3¢	$12.69	$20.51	+$7.82	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 93.8¢	$38.14	$15.6	+$0.88	54% 997-856 (1853)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 5.3¢	$10.07	$1.26	-$8.81	33% 539-1115 (1654)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$3,445.62

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,520.49

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$630.19

Record

61%

234-149 (383)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,196.91

Value

$976.19

PnL

-$220.72

Record

56%

4502-3474 (7976)

Smallcoins

Under

Invested

$114.33

Value

$217.66

PnL

+$103.33

Record

2-222 (224)

ER72SEN

Under

Invested

$1,623.38

Value

$183.61

PnL

+$93.91

Record

—

11-2 (13)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$116.08

Value

$120.03

PnL

+$3.96

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100

Under

Invested

$78.01

Value

$78.01

PnL

+$0

Record

86%

44-7 (51)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$12.69

Value

$20.51

PnL

+$7.82

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$38.14

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0.88

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.07

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$8.81

Record

33%

539-1115 (1654)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.