Türkiye vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$289.88

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 100¢

+110% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,984

Combined PnL+$846.91

Under7 traders

Total Value$46.73

Total Shares1,909

Combined PnL-$557.03

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 44.4¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$245.66	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 14.6¢	$48.48	$331.15	+$282.67	14% 29-185 (214)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$256.17	$258.5	+$2.33	99% 244-3 (247)
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$180.76	$180.85	+$0.09	99% 147-2 (149)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 16¢	$26.89	$167.87	+$140.99	36% 209-369 (578)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$82.09	$27.25	-$54.84	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 48¢	$7.61	$15.85	+$8.24	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 80¢	$13.28	$11.52	-$1.76	54% 994-856 (1850)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 80¢	$13.12	$6.23	-$6.89	46% 440-515 (955)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 33.6¢	$180.71	$5.44	+$166.93	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
dips.CTR	Underavg 15.5¢	$119.27	$0.77	-$118.5	45% 537-651 (1188)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 15.7¢	$94.43	$0.6	-$93.83	43% 348-470 (818)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Underavg 81¢	$257.37	$0.32	-$257.05	60% 674-451 (1125)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$24.2	$0.05	-$24.15	44% 389-495 (884)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,777.51

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$245.66

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$48.48

Value

$331.15

PnL

+$282.67

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$256.17

Value

$258.5

PnL

+$2.33

Record

99%

244-3 (247)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$180.76

Value

$180.85

PnL

+$0.09

Record

99%

147-2 (149)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$26.89

Value

$167.87

PnL

+$140.99

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.09

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$54.84

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$7.61

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$8.24

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.28

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$1.76

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.12

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$6.89

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$180.71

Value

$5.44

PnL

+$166.93

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$119.27

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$118.5

Record

45%

537-651 (1188)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$94.43

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$93.83

Record

43%

348-470 (818)

lonmi2511CTR

Under

Invested

$257.37

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$257.05

Record

60%

674-451 (1125)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$24.15

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.